An insurance company divides its policy holders into three categories: low risk, moderate risk, and high risk. The low-risk policy holders account for 55% of the total number of people insured by the company. The moderate-risk policy holders account for 25%, and the high-risk policy holders account for 20%. The probabilities that a low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk policy holder will file a claim within a given year are respectively 5%, 15% and 60%. Given that a policy holder files a claim this year, what is the probability that the person is a moderate-risk policy holder?

Answer:

0.2027 = 20.27% probability that the person is a moderate-risk policy holder

Step-by-step explanation:

Conditional Probability

We use the conditional probability formula to solve this question. It is

[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}[/tex]

In which

P(B|A) is the probability of event B happening, given that A happened.

[tex]P(A \cap B)[/tex] is the probability of both A and B happening.

P(A) is the probability of A happening.

In this question:

Event A: Policy holder files a claim.

Event B: The person is a moderate-risk policy holder.

Probability of filling a claim:

5% of 55%(low risk)

15% of 25%(moderate risk)

60% of 20%(high risk).

So

[tex]P(A) = 0.05*0.55 + 0.15*0.25 + 0.6*0.2 = 0.185[/tex]

Files a claim and is moderate risk:

15% of 25%(moderate risk)

So

[tex]P(A \cap B) = 0.15*0.25 = 0.0375[/tex]

Given that a policy holder files a claim this year, what is the probability that the person is a moderate-risk policy holder?

[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.0375}{0.185} = 0.2027[/tex]

0.2027 = 20.27% probability that the person is a moderate-risk policy holder

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